Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends

Yunus Aksoy, Ronald Smith, Tobias Grasl () and Henrique Basso
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Tobias Grasl: University of London

No 1528, Working Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: The effect of changes in demographic structure on medium-run trends of key macroeconomic variables is estimated using a panel VAR of 21 OECD economies. The panel data variability assists the identication of direct effects of demographics, while the dynamic structure uncovers long-term effects. Young and old dependants are found to have a negative impact while workers contribute positively. We propose a theoretical model, highlighting the relationship between demographics, innovation and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and reduced fertility is found to reduce output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries

Keywords: population age profile; medium-term; output growth; innovation; lifecycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 68 pages
Date: 2015-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-gro, nep-ino and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (38)

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http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaci ... /15/Fich/dt1528e.pdf First version, October 2015 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends (2019)
Working Paper: Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends (2016)
Working Paper: Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:1528

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