The countercyclical capital buffer in spain: an analysis of key guiding indicators

Christian Castro, Angel Estrada and Jorge Martínez ()
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Jorge Martínez: Banco de España

No 1601, Working Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: This paper analyses a group of quantitative indicators to guide the Basel III countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) in Spain. Using data covering three stress events in the Spanish banking system since the early 1960s, we describe a number of conceptual and practical issues that may arise with the Basel benchmark buffer guide (i.e. the credit-to-GDP gap) and study alternative specifications plus a number of complementary indicators. In this connection, we explore ways to deal with structural changes that may lead to some shortcomings in the indicators. Overall, we find that indicators of credit ‘intensity’ (where we propose the ratio of changes in credit to GDP), private sector debt sustainability, real estate prices and external imbalances can usefully complement the credit-to-GDP gap when taking CCB decisions in Spain.

Keywords: countercyclical capital buffer; credit-to-GDP gap; guiding indicators; build-up phase; credit intensity; real estate prices; external imbalances; private sector debt sustainability; macroprudential policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E58 G01 G21 G28 G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2016-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-cba, nep-cfn, nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:1601

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