External stress early warning indicators

Cesar Martin Machuca

No 1733, Working Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: We examine the determinants of external stress episodes through probit analysis, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities in order to build an external crisis early warning indicator for a set of selected EMU countries. We use a panel country data spanning 1970-2011 from External Wealth Dataset (Phillip Lane). Our results show that the ratio of net and gross foreign liabilities to GDP and current account balances — which measure external debt accumulation speed — are significant stress predictors, although (net) FDI liabilities seem an offset factor. Early warning indicators are based on a signalling approach and exploit panel dimension of the data to develop a country specific indicator. We find that EMU peripheral countries’ external indebtedness remains higher than risk threshold, in spite of the external adjustment accumulated in the last years in some countries. This result highlights the necessity of going on structural reforms that reinforce competitiveness of these economies.

Keywords: International investment positions; external debt; external vulnerability; current account imbalances (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 F32 F34 G15 H63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2017-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:1733

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