The narrative about the economy as a shadow forecast: an analysis using Banco de España quarterly reports

Nélida Díaz Sobrino (), Corinna Ghirelli, Samuel Hurtado (), Javier Pérez and Alberto Urtasun
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Nélida Díaz Sobrino: Universidad Nebrija
Samuel Hurtado: Banco de España

No 2042, Working Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to construct a text-based indicator that reflects the sentiment of the Banco de España economic outlook reports. Our sentiment indicator mimics very closely the first release of the GDP growth rate, which is published after the publication of the reports, and the Banco de España quarterly forecasts of the GDP growth rate. This means that the qualitative narrative contained in the reports contains similar information to the one conveyed by the quantitative forecasts. In addition, the narrative complements the quantitative projections by discussing information which is not directly reflected in the point forecasts.

Keywords: textual analysis; sentiment analysis; GDP growth rate; forecasting; central bank reports (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C55 E37 E58 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2020-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-for and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:2042

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