An assessment on the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Italian demographic structure

Giacomo Caracciolo, Salvatore Lo Bello () and Dario Pellegrino
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Salvatore Lo Bello: Bank of Italy

No 622, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: Relative to past pandemics, the mortality effects of Covid-19 on the demographic structure are likely smaller. However, the behavioural effects of the economic crisis on the decisions to have children and to migrate may be substantial. The literature on the relationship between the economic cycle and demographics uncovers the potential of the unemployment rate to predict fertility and migrations. Based on this evidence, we estimate the elasticity of the number of births per woman of child-bearing age and of the net migration rate to the unemployment rate in Italy, considering the 1980-2019 period. Accordingly, we forecast the impact of the pandemic on the birth rate and on migration flows in 2020-23, and we build alternative scenarios for the following years (2024-2065). Lastly, we examine the consequences of the same phenomena on the demographic structure and on GDP and on GDP per capita. Given the scenarios outlined in our work and in the absence of effective policies to support economic growth, the crisis may exacerbate the process of population ageing indicated by Istat projections, with significant repercussions for output.

Keywords: demographic trends; macroeconomic effects; and forecasts; fertility; family planning; economic history (demography; comparative); population ageing. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J13 N30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dem, nep-eec and nep-his
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