Italian economic growth and the North-South gap: Historical trends and future projections in light of the recent demographic scenarios

Marta De Philippis, Andrea Locatelli (), Giulio Papini () and Roberto Torrini
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Andrea Locatelli: Bank of Italy
Giulio Papini: Bank of Italy

No 683, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: This paper presents a historical account of economic trends in Italy and its two macro-regions, the Centre and North and the South, since the 1950s, and outlines several growth scenarios based on recent demographic projections and alternative hypotheses on future labour market and productivity paths. We document a progressive slowdown in GDP, particularly in the South, driven by productivity and, more recently, also by employment and capital accumulation dynamics. Going forward, given the reduction in the working age population, without improvements in productivity and labour force participation, the Italian economy – the southern one in particular – is projected to shrink from the second half of the current decade. Despite the unfavourable demographic trends, robust growth rates could still be achieved if productivity grew at the same rate as in other European countries and assuming a catching-up process of between the South and the Centre and North of the country.

Keywords: regional disparities; demographic trends; economic growth; labour market; total factor productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 J11 N10 O40 O52 R1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-gro, nep-his and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_683_22

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