A tool to nowcast tourist overnight stays with payment data and complementary indicators

Marta Crispino () and Vincenzo Mariani ()
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Marta Crispino: Bank of Italy
Vincenzo Mariani: Bank of Italy

No 746, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: This paper proposes a strategy for nowcasting tourist overnight stays in Italy by exploiting payment card data and Google Search indices. The strategy is applied to national and regional overnight stays at a time of a significant and unanticipated shock to tourism flows and payment habits (the COVID-19 pandemic). Our results show that indicators based on payment data are very informative for predicting tourist volumes, both at the national and at the regional level. Instead, the predictive power of Google Search data is more limited.

Keywords: tourism; time series; payment cards data; Google Trends; nowcasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C55 F47 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-pay and nep-tur
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_746_23

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