An analysis of the determinants of credit default swap spread changes before and during the subprime financial turmoil

Antonio Di Cesare () and Giovanni Guazzarotti

No 749, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants of credit default swap spread changes for a large sample of US non-financial companies over the period between January 2002 and March 2009. In our analysis we use variables that the literature has found have an impact on CDS spreads and, in order to account for possible non-linear effects, the theoretical CDS spreads predicted by the Merton model. We show that our set of variables is able to explain more than 50% of CDS spread variations both before and after July 2007, when the current financial turmoil began. We also document that since the onset of the crisis CDS spreads have become much more sensitive to the level of leverage while volatility has lost its importance. Using a principal component analysis we also show that since the beginning of the crisis CDS spread changes have been increasingly driven by a common factor, which cannot be explained by indicators of economic activity, uncertainty, and risk aversion.

Keywords: credit default swaps; bond spreads; credit risk; Merton model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G12 G13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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