A structural model for the housing and credit markets in Italy

Andrea Nobili and Francesco Zollino ()
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Francesco Zollino: Bank of Italy

No 887, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: We estimate a fully-fledged structural system for the housing market in Italy, taking into account the multi-fold link with bank lending to both households and construction firms. The model allows the house supply to vary in the short run and the banking sector to affect the equilibrium in the housing market, through its effect on housing supply and demand. We show that house prices react mostly to standard drivers such as disposable income, expected inflation and demographic pressures. Lending conditions also have a significant impact, especially through their effects on mortgage loans, and consequently on housing demand. Allowing short-run adjustment in house supply implies a weaker response of house prices to a change in the monetary stance or in banks� deleveraging process. Finally, we find that since the mid-eighties house price developments in Italy have been broadly in line with the fundamentals; during the recent financial crisis, the worsening in credit supply conditions dampened house price dynamics, partly offsetting the positive stimulus provided by the easing of the monetary policy stance.

Keywords: house prices; credit; system of simultaneous equations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E51 E52 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-ure
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Journal Article: A structural model for the housing and credit market in Italy (2017)
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