The trend-cycle decomposition of output and the Phillips curve: Bayesian estimates for Italy

Fabio Busetti and Michele Caivano

No 941, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: A standard model-based trend-cycle decomposition of Italian GDP yields a likelihood function that is relatively flat and has two local maxima. A Bayesian estimation of the model identifies output gap and trend components that match the features of the Italian business cycle well. In a bivariate output and Phillips curve model it is found that: (i) the median value of the semi-elasticity of prices to the output gap is 0.5 after 20 quarters, (ii) the inflation cycle lags GDP on average by about 3 quarters.

Keywords: Bayesian methods; potential output; unobserved components. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C30 C50 E50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-disc ... 0941/en_tema_941.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_941_13

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().