The COVID epidemic and the economic activity with acquired immunity

Juan Esteban Carranza, Juan David Martin and Alvaro Riascos ()

Borradores de Economia from Banco de la Republica de Colombia

Abstract: We calibrate a macroeconomic model with epidemiological restrictions using Colombian data. The key feature of our model is that a portion of the population is immune and cannot transmit the virus, which improves substantially the fit of the model to the observed contagion and economic activity data. The model implies that government restrictions and the endogenous changes in individual behavior saved around 15,000 lives and decreased consumption in 2020 by about 4.7%. The results suggest that most of this effect was the result of the government policies. **** Calibramos un modelo macroeconómico con restricciones epidemiológicas utilizando datos colombianos. La característica clave de nuestro modelo es que una parte de la población es inmune y no puede transmitir el virus, lo cual mejora sustancialmente el ajuste del modelo a los datos de contagio y actividad económica observados. El modelo implica que las restricciones gubernamentales y los cambios endógenos en el comportamiento individual salvaron alrededor de 15,000 vidas y redujeron el consumo en 2020 en aproximadamente un 4.7 %. Los resultados sugieren que la mayor parte de este efecto fue el resultado de las políticas gubernamentales.

Keywords: Colombia; Epidemic; COVID-19; recessions; containment policies; SIR macro model; Colombia; epidemia; COVID-19; recesiones; políticas de confinamiento; Modelo macro SIR. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E1 H0 I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18
Date: 2020-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdr:borrec:1147

DOI: 10.32468/be.1147

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