MAPI: Model for Analysis and Projection of Inflation in France

Louis de Charsonville, F. Ferri Re and C. Jardet

Working papers from Banque de France

Abstract: In this paper, we present the new model developed at Banque de France to forecast the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and its components in France up to twelve quarters during the Eurosystem projection exercises. The model is a partial equilibrium model and is used for forecast purposes jointly with the macroeconomic model Mascotte. The model generates more accurate forecasts, conditional to Eurosystem common technical assumptions, than pure autoregressive models. We derive impacts of oil-price shock, exchange rate and wage shocks on headline and core HICP and find significant pass-through.

Keywords: forecasting; inflation; time-series. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2017
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:637

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