Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery

Valerie Cerra and Sweta Saxena

No 226, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: Using panel data for a large number of countries, we find that economic contractions are not followed by offsetting fast recoveries. Trend output lost is not regained, on average. Wars, crises, and other negative shocks lead to absolute divergence and lower long-run growth, whereas we find absolute convergence in expansions. The output costs of political and financial crises are permanent on average, and long-term growth is negatively linked to volatility. These results also imply that panel data studies can help identify the sources of growth and that economic models should be capable of explaining growth and fluctuations within the same framework.

Keywords: growth; output loss; recessions; crises; wars; business cycles; recovery (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 E32 F43 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2007-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery (2008)
Working Paper: Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery (2005)
Working Paper: Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bis:biswps:226

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