Energy transition scenarios in Russia: effects in macroeconomic general equilibrium model with rational expectations

Mikhail Andreyev and Alyona Nelyubina

No wps122, Bank of Russia Working Paper Series from Bank of Russia

Abstract: We use a DSGE model for a hydrocarbon-rich country to examine the macroeconomic implications of scenarios that lead to an energy transition. Our findings show that the scenario of the fall in export revenues from brown energy sales is the least preferred for energy transition in terms of welfare loss, while the scenario of imposing higher taxes is more acceptable. The most favourable scenario leading to the smallest drop in public wealth and long-term growth in output and consumption involves the productivity incentives in the green energy sector. We also analyse the impact of mechanisms such as monetary policy inertia, the level of openness of the financial account, technological substitutability between brown and green energy. We found that news about the future implementation of green policies alone cannot trigger the energy transition. Investments become cleaner after the news announcement, but this barely increases green energy production.

Keywords: : dynamic models; general equilibrium; rational expectations; green energy; energy transition; climate policy; cross-border tax; monetary policy. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 E47 E62 E63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 64 pages
Date: 2024-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-dge, nep-ene and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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