Official statistics release and inflation expectations

Serafin Frache and Rodrigo Lluberas

No 2020009, Documentos de trabajo from Banco Central del Uruguay

Abstract: The empirical evidence on the social value of public information is scarce. In this paper, we provide evidence on how firms' inflation expectations react to the publication of public information, i.e. the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) in a country with a history of high and volatile inflation. We show that firms that answer the survey after the release of public information are more likely to revise their current year inflation expectations, have lower forecast errors, and lower disagreement about future inflation than firms that answer the survey before the publication of the official CPI monthly statistics. In that sense albeit the existing evidence for low-inflation countries suggests that agents do not react to monetary policy announcements or the publication of public information, we show that might not be the case in medium or high-inflation countries.

Keywords: national accounts; agricultural sector; methodology; regions; employment; structure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D22 D84 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Estadisticas-e-Indicadores/ ... 20Trabajo/9.2020.pdf First version, 2020 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bku:doctra:2020009

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Documentos de trabajo from Banco Central del Uruguay Biblioteca Especializada. Banco Central del Uruguay. Diagonal Fabini 777, Montevideo-Uruguay. CP 11100. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Biblioteca Especializada ().