THE ARGENTINEAN CURRENCY CRISIS: A MARKOV‐SWITCHING MODEL ESTIMATION

Patricia Alvarez‐plata and Mechthild Schrooten

The Developing Economies, 2006, vol. 44, issue 1, 79-91

Abstract: In 2002, the Argentinean currency board came to a sudden and dramatic end. Although the country had been suffering from weak economic fundamentals for years, the timing and severity of the currency crisis surprised most observers. The present study analyzes the role of fundamentals and self‐fulfilling speculation in the Argentinean crisis. Arguing within a theoretical model of a fixed exchange rate system that allows for multiple equilibria, we show that the crisis, although associated with weak fundamentals, cannot be explained by these macroeconomic factors alone. Estimating a univariate Markov‐switching model, the current study shows that shifts in agents’ beliefs did indeed also play a crucial role.

Date: 2006
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2006.00004.x

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Working Paper: The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation (2003)
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