U.S. shale oil production and trend estimation: Forecasting a Hubbert model

Douglas B. Reynolds

Economic Inquiry, 2024, vol. 62, issue 1, 468-487

Abstract: Scarcity and growth analyses about energy include forecasting extraction rates of non‐renewable resources while taking into account technological progression. One mechanism, Moore's (1965) Law of technological improvement, encompasses experience enhanced steady cost reductions. Alternatively, synthesis technological change refers to unforeseen innovative breakthroughs. These trends relate to the Hubbert (1956, 1962) Curve of U.S shale oil extraction in the U.S. Lower 48 contiguous states. Price effects, drilling rigs and the price‐to‐drilling rig relationship are analyzed. Results show we are at peak U.S. shale oil, and could experience comprehensive decline. This implies Catton's (1982) “Age of Exuberance,” and “Carrying Capacity” drawdown.

Date: 2024
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