 Assessing the Informational Content of Official Australian Bureau of Meteorology Forecasts of Wind SpeedStan Hurn, Jing Tian and Lina Xu The Economic Record, 2021, vol. 97, issue 319, 525-547 Abstract: Understanding forecast revisions is critical for weather forecast users to determine the optimal timing for their planning decisions. A set of multi‐horizon forecasts for wind speed produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 12 weather stations in eastern Australia are examined. The forecasts are examined in terms of the econometric definition of rationality and, as a robustness check, the economic value of the forecasts is also assessed using a cost–loss model. It is demonstrated that while the forecasts exhibit some of the characteristics of rational forecasts, when official testing is introduced forecast rationality is rejected at all the weather stations considered. Furthermore, the behaviour of the forecasts is shown to be very erratic over the course of the day and over forecast horizons. Although there is some evidence that the official forecasts can provide positive economic value, this metric also indicates that there is substantial room for improvement. Date: 2021 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:97:y:2021:i:319:p:525-547 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article The Economic Record is currently edited by Paul Miller, Glenn Otto and Martin Richardson More articles in The Economic Record from The Economic Society of Australia Contact information at EDIRC. |
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