The expected investment growth premium

Jun Li, Huijun Wang and Jianfeng Yu

Financial Management, 2021, vol. 50, issue 4, 905-933

Abstract: We propose a novel measure of investment plans, namely expected investment growth (EIG), and find stocks with high EIG outperform stocks with low EIG by 17% per annum. This premium can be generated in a neoclassical model with the investment plan friction, in which a firm's expected returns increases with its planned investment due to an embedded leverage effect. We provide empirical evidence on the interaction of the cash flow effect and discount rate effect in driving this EIG premium. Our findings highlight the investment plan friction as an important economic channel to understand the cross‐sectional risk premium.

Date: 2021
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