A review of methods to trace material flows into final products in dynamic material flow analysis: Comparative application of six methods to the United States and EXIOBASE3 regions, Part 2

Jan Streeck, Hanspeter Wieland, Stefan Pauliuk, Barbara Plank, Kenichi Nakajima and Dominik Wiedenhofer

Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2023, vol. 27, issue 2, 457-475

Abstract: Modeling pathways toward sustainable production and consumption requires improved spatio‐temporal and material coverage of end‐use product stocks. Momentarily, studies on inflow‐driven, dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) extrapolate scarce information on material end‐use shares (i.e., ratios that split economy‐wide material consumption to different end‐use products) for single countries and years across longer time periods and global regions. Therefore, in part 1 of this work, we reviewed five methods to derive material end‐use shares which use industry shipment data in physical units and monetary input–output tables (MIOTs). Herein, we comparatively apply these methods to the United States, drawing on detailed national data, as well as the multi‐regional input–output model EXIOBASE3. To better match MIOT and dMFA system definitions, we propose the end‐use transfer method, which re‐routes specific intermediate outputs to final demand in MIOTs. In closing, we conclude on 12 points for improved end‐use shares. We find mixed results regarding the fit between end‐use shares derived from industry shipments and MIOTs: for detailed national data, we find good fit for some materials (e.g., aluminum), while others deviate strongly (e.g., steel). In many cases, the temporal trend of MIOT‐derived end‐use shares roughly agrees with industry shipments. For EXIOBASE3, we find good fit for some countries and materials, but substantial mismatches for others. Despite mixed results, combining MIOT‐based end‐use shares with industry shipments and auxiliary country‐level data could enable improved temporal, geographical, and end‐use resolution. However, the scarcity, documentation, and quality of input data are key limitations for more accurate and detailed end‐use shares. This article met the requirements for a gold‐gold data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

Date: 2023
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