Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature

Allan H. Murphy and Robert L. Winkler

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 1977, vol. 26, issue 1, 41-47

Abstract: This paper briefly describes some results of operational and experimental programmes in the United States involving subjective probability forecasts of precipitation occurrence and of maximum and minimum temperatures. These results indicate that weather forecasters can formulate such forecasts in a reliable manner.

Date: 1977
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