 Regional growth and disparities in a post‐COVID Europe: A new normality scenarioRoberta Capello and Andrea Caragliu Journal of Regional Science, 2021, vol. 61, issue 4, 710-727 Abstract: This paper addresses the important question “Which European areas will be able to better react to the crisis induced by COVID‐19 and how regional disparities will look like?” To provide an answer, a “new normality” scenario is built, comprising the structural changes likely to take place in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. To develop such scenario, two intermediate steps are necessary, in both cases relying on the use of the latest generation of the MAcroeconomic, Sectoral, Social, Territorial (MASST4) model. First, short‐run costs of the COVID‐induced lockdowns, in terms of missed GDP, are calculated for all European NUTS2 regions, needed because of the lack of short‐run statistics about the extent of the regional costs caused by the lockdowns that will only appear in 2 years. Second, a long‐run simulation of the economic rebound expected to take place from 2021 through 2030 is presented, assuming, among other trends, that no further national lockdowns will be undertaken in European countries. In the “new normality” scenario, regional disparity trends will decrease as a result of a decisive rebound of those countries mostly hit by the pandemic. Date: 2021 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:61:y:2021:i:4:p:710-727 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Journal of Regional Science is currently edited by Marlon G. Boarnet, Matthew Kahn and Mark D. Partridge More articles in Journal of Regional Science from Wiley Blackwell |
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