 Socioeconomic impacts of Russian invasion of Ukraine: A multiregional assessment for EuropeMiguel Ángel Almazán‐Gómez, Carlos Llano, Julián Pérez and Daniel Rauhut Journal of Regional Science, 2024, vol. 64, issue 2, 333-354 Abstract: History shows that wars can be enormously disruptive of economic activity, especially international trade, national income, and global economic welfare. This article analyzes the impact on the European regions the Russian invasion of Ukraine using the largest and most updated multiregional input‐output model for Europe. Two shocks, trade and inflation, and four alternative scenarios are simulated. The scenarios are considered regarding the number of countries applying a trade embargo, the exemption of oil and gas, and the potential trade diversions with third countries such as China. We obtained a significant fall in GDP (−1.7%), 3.7 m lost jobs and 3% raise over the prewar inflation rate. For trade shock, large indirect effects are obtained, indicating the high relevance of the sectors and countries exposed to the war and the sanctions. The republics of the former Soviet Union, as well as the satellite countries of the former communism, face the harshest adverse impacts. This work shows the importance of breaking Russia's colonial economic ties to the countries in Eastern Europe. Date: 2024 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:64:y:2024:i:2:p:333-354 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Journal of Regional Science is currently edited by Marlon G. Boarnet, Matthew Kahn and Mark D. Partridge More articles in Journal of Regional Science from Wiley Blackwell |
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