A Band Spectral Analysis of Exports and Economic Growth in the United States

H Sonmez Atesoglu and Jon Vilasuso

Review of International Economics, 1999, vol. 7, issue 1, 140-52

Abstract: This paper examines the role of exports in aggregate economic growth in the United States using band spectral regression. The findings reveal a predictable relationship between long-run frequency components of real export growth and real GDP growth over the post-Bretton Woods period of flexible exchange rates. The study fails to uncover a significant relationship between long-run frequency components of the terms of trade and real output. Overall, the findings support the export-led growth hypothesis, and dismiss long-run movements in the terms of trade as an important determinant of real output growth. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Date: 1999
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