Polarization, partisanship, and pandemic: The relationship between county‐level support for Donald Trump and the spread of Covid‐19 during the spring and summer of 2020

David S. Morris

Social Science Quarterly, 2021, vol. 102, issue 5, 2412-2431

Abstract: Objective Republicans and Democrats have displayed widely divergent beliefs and behaviors related to COVID‐19, creating the possibility that geographic areas with more Donald Trump supporters may be more likely to suffer from the disease. Methods I use 2016 election data, COVID‐19 case and mortality data, and multilevel linear growth models with state fixed effects to estimate the relationship between county‐level support for Donald Trump and the trajectory of cumulative COVID‐19 cases and deaths per 100,000 county residents between March 17, 2020 and August 31, 2020. Results Counties more supportive of Trump had fewer COVID‐19 cases and deaths in the early months of the pandemic. However, as the summer moved into July and August, counties less supportive of Trump stopped growth rates of COVID‐19 cases and deaths, while counties more supportive of Trump saw a trajectory of increased cases and deaths in July and August. This is likely due to the widely divergent beliefs and behaviors displayed by Republicans and Democrats toward COVID‐19. Conclusion This study underscores the power of polarization and partisanship in the public sphere, even when it comes to a public health issue.

Date: 2021
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