The Uneven Pace of Deindustrialisation in the OECD

Stephen Nickell, Stephen Redding and Joanna Swaffield (j.k.swaffield@soton.ac.uk)

The World Economy, 2008, vol. 31, issue 9, 1154-1184

Abstract: Throughout the OECD, the period since the 1970s saw a secular decline in manufacturing's share of GDP and a secular rise in the share of services. Despite this being a central feature of growth, the economic forces behind deindustrialisation and the reasons why its pace varied so markedly across OECD countries are not well understood. Adopting an econometric approach founded in neoclassical production theory, we provide an empirical analysis of the role of changes in relative prices, technology and factor endowments in driving changes in production structure. The speed of adjustment to changes in these determinants of production structure varies across OECD countries and is correlated with levels of employment protection.

Date: 2008
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