ON A MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE EXCHANGE RATE EURO-LEU WITH A NAR NEURAL NETWORK

Dumitru Ciobanu

Revista Economica, 2012, vol. Supplement, issue 5, 38-44

Abstract: Developing new methods for predictive modeling of time series and application of existing techniques in many other areas will be a permanent concern for both researchers and companies that are interested to gain competitive advantages. In this paper, I used Matlab software suite to create a NAR (nonlinear autoregressive) neural network able to predict the following values of the series of exchange rate euro-leu. Using graphs obtained from numerous simulations emphasize the chaotic nature of the series. I also explore the possibility of improving the predictions with a time series made of arithmetic averages of predictions.

Date: 2012
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