Long-Term Economic Forecasting with Structured Analogies and Interaction Groups

Konstantinos Nikolopoulos (), Waleed S. Alghassab, Konstantia Litsiou and Stelios Sapountzis
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Waleed S. Alghassab: University of Hail, Saudi Arabia
Konstantia Litsiou: Manchester Metropolitan University
Stelios Sapountzis: Salford Business School & Manchester Metropolitan University

No 19018, Working Papers from Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales)

Abstract: This paper explores the potential of long-term economic forecasting with judgmental methods: semi-Structured Analogies(SA) and Interaction Groups (IG). The case study is Saudi Arabia and its aim to adopt a diversification strategy to reduce its dependency on the oil sector, where oil revenue consists 90% of its budget currently. The study has four phases: Unaided Judgment, Structured Analogies, and Interaction Groups with Structured Analogies - all three using disguised data – before finally working on the undisguised case study under review over a significant amount of time. Adopting judgmental methods are attributed to three main reasons: in an attempt to derive long-term economic forecasts about Saudi Arabia’s ability to diversify its investments, to discover the impact of different factors on financial and economic outlooks, and to explore the main reasons for deviating the accuracy of financial and economic forecasts

Keywords: Foresight; Economic Forecasting; Structured Analogies; Interaction Groups; Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-for
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