Political violence and economic activity in Bangladesh: A robust empirical investigation

Christophe Muller and Ahmed Yousuf ()

French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 from Stata Users Group

Abstract: Using daily and monthly level nightlight products from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Black Marble suite (NASA and Administration (2199)) and extrapolating hartal-related violence data with a keyword search from the geocoded Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) database, we investigate the impact of such events on economic activity in Bangladesh. We focus our investigation first at daily level and secondly at monthly level. At daily level, we utilize autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) estimation to factor in the deeply autoregressive nature of daily nightlights, to identify immediate (within-day) effects from hartals, individually for key subdistricts. At the monthly level, to factor in the emergent consequent spatial dependence, we analyze countrywide dynamics using a split-panel jackknife bias-corrected maximum-likelihood estimations to see overall effects from lagged hartal event counts. At daily level, over 2012–21, in the capital Dhaka, we find that daily hartals have an immediate statistically significant impact of -0.9 percent on daily nightlights. However, this effect does not hold across all subdistricts and only does so for a select number of subdistricts. At the monthly level, we find evidence of statistically significant countrywide effects of 1.6 percent.

Date: 2023-08-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-pol and nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:boc:fsug23:06

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