Export dynamics since the Great Trade Collapse: a cross-country analysis

John Lewis and Selien De Schryder

No 535, Bank of England working papers from Bank of England

Abstract: Using a panel model of goods exports for 16 OECD economies, we quantify advanced economies’ export performance since the ‘Great Trade Collapse’ (GTC). We go beyond the traditional determinants of trade to include a variable measuring shifts in the sectoral composition of world trade and split the real exchange rate into its constituent parts to allow for a differential response to unit labour costs and the nominal exchange rate. We find that, a pre-crisis model based on average coefficients explains the recovery in aggregate exports since the GTC well. But at the country level, we do find substantial cross-country variation in export performance.

Keywords: International trade; forecasting; cross-country panel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 F14 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2015-07-24
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-int and nep-opm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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