A Nowcasting Model of Exports Using Maritime Big Data

Kakuho Furukawa and Ryohei Hisano
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Kakuho Furukawa: Bank of Japan
Ryohei Hisano: The University of Tokyo

No 22-E-19, Bank of Japan Working Paper Series from Bank of Japan

Abstract: We nowcast Japan's exports using maritime big data (the Automatic Identification System data), which contains information on vessels such as their locations. The data has been only relatively rarely used for capturing economic trends. In doing so, we improve the accuracy of nowcasts by utilizing official statistics such as geographical data on ports and machine learning techniques. The analysis shows that the nowcasting model augmented with AIS data improves the performance of nowcasting relative to existing statistics (provisional reports on the Trade Statistics of Japan) that is available in close to real-time. In particular, the nowcasting model developed in this paper follows the movements of exports reasonably well even when they increase or decrease significantly (e.g., when the pandemic began in the spring of 2020 and when the supply chain was disrupted around mid-2021).

Keywords: Nowcasting; Alternative data; AIS data; Exports (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C49 C55 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-12-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big and nep-int
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