Quantifying Gains in the War on Cancer Due to Improved Treatment and Earlier Detection

Seth Seabury, Dana Goldman, Gupta Charu N., Khan Zeba M., Chandra Amitabh, Tomas Philipson and Darius Lakdawalla
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Gupta Charu N.: The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania – Health Care Management Department, PA, USA
Khan Zeba M.: Celgene Corporation, Summit, New Jersey, USA
Chandra Amitabh: Harvard University – John F. Kennedy School of Government, Boston, MA, USA

Forum for Health Economics & Policy, 2016, vol. 19, issue 1, 141-156

Abstract: Introduction: There have been significant improvements in both treatment and screening efforts for many types of cancer over the past decade. However, the effect of these advancements on the survival of cancer patients is unknown, and many question the value of both new treatments and screening efforts.Methods: This study uses a retrospective analysis of SEER Registry data to quantify reductions in mortality rates for cancer patients diagnosed between 1997 and 2007. Using variation in trends in mortality rates by stage of diagnosis across cancer types, we use logistic regression to decompose separate survival gains into those attributable to advances in treatment versus advances in detection. We estimate the gains in survival due to gains in both treatment and detection overall and separately for 15 of the most common cancer types.Results: We estimate that 3-year cancer-related mortality of cancer patients fell 16.7% from 1997 to 2007. Overall, advances in treatment reduced mortality rates by approximately 12.2% while advances in early detection reduced mortality rates by 4.5%. The relative importance of treatment and detection varied across cancer types. Improvements in detection were most important for thyroid, prostate and kidney cancer. Improvements in treatment were most important for non-Hodgkins lymphoma, lung cancer and myeloma.Conclusion: Both improved treatment options and better early detection have led to significant survival gains for cancer patients diagnosed from 1997 to 2007, generating considerable social value over this time period.

Keywords: cancer; cancer screening; cancer treatment; medical innovation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2015-0028

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