Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model

Peter Dixon, Lee Bumsoo, Muehlenbeck Todd, Maureen Rimmer, Rose Adam and George Verikios
Additional contact information
Lee Bumsoo: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Muehlenbeck Todd: University of Southern California
Rose Adam: University of Southern California

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 2010, vol. 7, issue 1, 19

Abstract: We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

Keywords: influenza epidemic; quarterly CGE model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (33)

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Working Paper: Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: analysis with a quarterly CGE model (2010)
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DOI: 10.2202/1547-7355.1769

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