Formula for success: Multilevel modelling of Formula One Driver and Constructor performance, 1950–2014

Bell Andrew (), Smith James, Sabel Clive E. and Jones Kelvyn
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Bell Andrew: The University of Sheffield – Sheffield Methods Institute, Sheffield, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Smith James: University of Bristol – School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Sabel Clive E.: University of Bristol – School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Jones Kelvyn: University of Bristol – School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2016, vol. 12, issue 2, 99-112

Abstract: This paper uses random-coefficient models and (a) finds rankings of who are the best formula 1 (F1) drivers of all time, conditional on team performance; (b) quantifies how much teams and drivers matter; and (c) quantifies how team and driver effects vary over time and under different racing conditions. The points scored by drivers in a race (standardised across seasons and Normalised) is used as the response variable in a cross-classified multilevel model that partitions variance into team, team-year and driver levels. These effects are then allowed to vary by year, track type and weather conditions using complex variance functions. Juan Manuel Fangio is found to be the greatest driver of all time. Team effects are shown to be more important than driver effects (and increasingly so over time), although their importance may be reduced in wet weather and on street tracks. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken with various forms of the dependent variable; this did not lead to substantively different conclusions. We argue that the approach can be applied more widely across the social sciences, to examine individual and team performance under changing conditions.

Keywords: cross-classified models; formula 1; MCMC; multilevel models; performance; sport (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2015-0050

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