Analysis of substitution times in soccer

Silva Rajitha M. and Swartz Tim B. ()
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Silva Rajitha M.: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby BC, Canada V5A1S6
Swartz Tim B.: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby BC, Canada V5A1S6

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2016, vol. 12, issue 3, 113-122

Abstract: This paper considers the problem of determining optimal substitution times in soccer. We review the substitution rule proposed by Myers (Myers, B. R. 2012. “A Proposed Decision Rule for the Timing of Soccer Substitutions.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 8: Article 9.) and provide a discussion of the results. An alternative analysis is then presented that is based on Bayesian logistic regression. We find that with evenly matched teams, there is a goal scoring advantage to the trailing team during the second half of a match. In addition, we provide a different perspective with respect to the substitution guidelines advocated by Myers (Myers, B. R. 2012. “A Proposed Decision Rule for the Timing of Soccer Substitutions.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 8: Article 9.). Specifically, we observe that there is no discernible time during the second half when there is a benefit due to substitution.

Keywords: Bayesian logistic regression; statistics in sport; subjective priors; temporal smoothing; WinBUGS software (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2015-0114

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