Solving the Problem of Inadequate Scoring Rules for Assessing Probabilistic Football Forecast Models

Constantinou Anthony Costa and Fenton Norman Elliott
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Constantinou Anthony Costa: Queen Mary, University of London
Fenton Norman Elliott: Queen Mary, University of London

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2012, vol. 8, issue 1, 14

Abstract: Despite the massive popularity of probabilistic (association) football forecasting models, and the relative simplicity of the outcome of such forecasts (they require only three probability values corresponding to home win, draw, and away win) there is no agreed scoring rule to determine their forecast accuracy. Moreover, the various scoring rules used for validation in previous studies are inadequate since they fail to recognise that football outcomes represent a ranked (ordinal) scale. This raises severe concerns about the validity of conclusions from previous studies. There is a well-established generic scoring rule, the Rank Probability Score (RPS), which has been missed by previous researchers, but which properly assesses football forecasting models.

Keywords: association football forecasting; forecast assessment; forecast verification; predictive evaluation; probability forecasting; rank probability score; sports forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1418

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