A Markov Model of Football: Using Stochastic Processes to Model a Football Drive

Goldner Keith
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Goldner Keith: Northwestern University

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2012, vol. 8, issue 1, 18

Abstract: A team is backed into a 4th-and-26 from their own 25, down 3 points. What are the odds that drive ends in a field goal? In the 2003 playoffs, Donovan McNabb and the Eagles scoffed at such a probability as they converted and ultimately kicked a field goal to send the game into overtime. This study creates a mathematical model of a football drive that can calculate such probabilities, labeling down, distance, and yard line into states in an absorbing Markov chain. The Markov model provides a basic framework for evaluating play in football. With all the details of the model—absorption probabilities, expected time until absorption, expected points—we gain a much greater situational understanding for in-game analysis.

Keywords: stochastic processes; football; markov chain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1400

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