TESTING FOR FINANCIAL CONTAGION BETWEEN DEVELOPED AND EMERGING MARKETS DURING THE 1997 EAST ASIAN CRISIS

Philip Arestis, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Andrea Cipollini and Nicola Spagnolo

Economics and Finance Discussion Papers from Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University

Abstract: In this paper we examine whether during the 1997 East Asian crisis there was any contagion from the four largest economies in the region (Thailand, Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia) to a number of developed countries (Japan, UK, Germany and France).Following Forbes and Rigobon (2002), we test for contagion as a significant positive shift in the correlation between asset returns, taking into account heteroscedasticity and endogeneity bias. Furthermore, we improve on earlier empirical studies by carrying out a full sample test of the stability of the system that relies on more plausible (over)identifying restrictions. The estimation results provide some evidence of contagion, in particular from Japan (the major international lender in the region), which drastically cut its credit lines to the other Asian countries in 1997.

Pages: 17 pages
Date: 2005-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cfn, nep-fin, nep-fmk, nep-ifn, nep-pke and nep-sea
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Related works:
Journal Article: Testing for financial contagion between developed and emerging markets during the 1997 East Asian crisis (2005)
Working Paper: Testing for Financial Contagion between Developed and Emerging Markets during the 1997 East Asian Crisis (2003)
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