 A Test of Unbiasedness and Sports Book Profits in the NFL Point Spread Betting Merket Using Circadian AdvantageDaniel Chin
Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, 2011, vol. 5, issue 3, 15-26 Abstract: Medical research shows that the human body typically performs at its best during late afternoon hours, and that the results of National Football League (NFL) games can partly be explained by differences in these levels of performance, coined the circadian advantage, when teams based in different time zones play against each other. This paper uses an augmented version of Dare and Holland’s (2004) generalized model to provide evidence that a circadian advantage bias exists in the NFL betting market. Detailed betting data used here supports results from Levitt (2004) and Paul and Weinbach (2007) by showing that sports books make use of the bias by setting odds that bait bettors who are unaware of the circadian advantage into making what tends to be a losing wager on the disadvantaged team. JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:5:y:2011:i:3:p:15-26 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Journal of Gambling Business and Economics is currently edited by Leighton Vaughan Williams, Nottingham Business School More articles in Journal of Gambling Business and Economics from University of Buckingham Press |
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