The quality of a consensus forecast for economic growth in Belgium, 1981-2001

Jozef Vuchelen and Maria Gutierrez

Brussels Economic Review, 2002, vol. 45, issue 1, 67-90

Abstract: This article evaluates the quality of an average or consensus forecast for economic growth in Belgium. A quarterly series of current and one-year-ahead growth forecasts is constructed as the average of forecasts published by Belgian institutions. In similar foreign studies a fixed number of forecasts is considered since a forecaster is only included if he published forecasts in every quarter of the sample; we do not take this restrictive view but calculated the average of all forecasts made available in any quarter. The consensus growth forecasts will be evaluated graphically, statistically and econometrically. The conclusion is that the Belgian consensus forecast is rather good, although some efficiency tests are not passed.

Keywords: prevision; conjuncture; consensus (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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