Did the COVID-19 pandemic disturb intra-EU trade in agrifood products? Evidence from a counterfactual forecasting approach

Mariusz Hamulczuk, Karolina Pawlak, Daniel Sumner and Grzegorz Szafrański
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Mariusz Hamulczuk: Department of International Economics and Agribusiness, Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
Karolina Pawlak: Department of Economics and Economic Policy in Agribusiness, Faculty of Economics, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland
Daniel Sumner: Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California at Davis, Davis, United States of America
Grzegorz Szafrański: Economics and Sociology Department, Institute of Econometrics, University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland

Agricultural Economics, 2024, vol. 70, issue 11, 556-564

Abstract: In this study, we attempt to infer the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the intra-European Union (EU) agrifood trade from out-of-sample forecasts. We compare the actual level of trade during the COVID-19 period with counterfactual values derived from univariate forecasting models [regARIMA (Linear regression with autoregressive integrated moving average errors) and Holt-Winters methods]. We analyse agrifood imports and exports of specific EU countries and the EU-27 aggregate on the basis of monthly data for the period from January 2010 to February 2022. The findings reveal a significant decrease in trade activity in the first year of the pandemic that was negatively correlated to COVID-19 restrictions applied by EU countries. Surprisingly, COVID-19 restrictions do not significantly explain the diversified agrifood trade response among EU countries during the pandemic.

Keywords: agricultural products; COVID restrictions; EU countries; food products; foreign trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:70:y:2024:i:11:id:253-2024-agricecon

DOI: 10.17221/253/2024-AGRICECON

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