Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France: l'approche VAR structurel

Olivier Biau and Élie Girard

Economie & Prévision, 2005, vol. n° 169-170-171, issue 3, 1-23

Abstract: To measure the effectiveness of fiscal policy in France, we estimate a structural VAR inspired by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). Consistently with most large macroeconometric models, our findings show the macroeconomic effectiveness of a structural increase in public spending in the short run (multiplier close to 1.4), which ? beyond its mechanical impact on aggregate demand ? stimulatesprivateconsumptionandinvestment.Similarly, theestimatedeffectofastructuralincreaseintaxesonoutputisnegative, mainly because of a decrease in private consumption; however, this response is small (multiplierclose toonly-0.1) and significant only in the very short run, although the result depends on the specific tax examined.

Keywords: fiscal policy; government spending; taxation; Vector Autoregression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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