EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

Cambridge Working Papers in Economics from Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge

Abstract: This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, out-put declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the .first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.

Keywords: Tight oil; shale oil; fracking revolution; oil price decline; oil supply; global macroeconometric modeling; and international business cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E17 F44 F47 O13 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-01-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-mac
Note: km418
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/sites/default/files/pub ... pe-pdfs/cwpe1605.pdf

Related works:
Journal Article: The US oil supply revolution and the global economy (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: The US oil supply revolution and the global economy (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: The U.S. oil supply revolution and the global economy (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy (2015) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cam:camdae:1605

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Cambridge Working Papers in Economics from Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jake Dyer ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-22
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1605