 Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-COV-2Chryssi Giannitsarou, Stephen Kissler and Flavio Toxvaerd Cambridge Working Papers in Economics from Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge Abstract: This paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the USA, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate and the planning horizon. Keywords: COVID-19; economic epidemiology; social distancing; waning immunity; demographics; infection control; SEIRS. (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cam:camdae:20126 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Cambridge Working Papers in Economics from Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.