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Regional Heterogeneity and U.S. Presidential Elections

Rashad Ahmed and Mohammad Pesaran

Cambridge Working Papers in Economics from Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge

Abstract: This paper develops a recursive model of voter turnout and voting outcomes at U.S. county level to investigate the socioeconomic determinants of recent U.S. presidential elections. It is shown that the relationship between many socioeconomic variables and voting outcomes is not uniform across U.S. regions. By allowing for regional heterogeneity and using high-dimensional variable selection algorithms, we can explain and correctly predict the unexpected 2016 Republican victory. Key factors explaining voting outcomes include incumbency effects, voter turnout, local economic performance, un-employment, poverty, educational attainment, house price changes, urban-rural scores, and international competitiveness. Our results corroborate evidence of 'short-memory' among voters: economic fluctuations realized a few months prior to the election are indeed powerful predictors of voting outcomes as compared to their longer- term analogues. The paper then presents real time forecasts for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election based on data available at the end of July 2020 which are then updated based on data available as of mid-October.

Keywords: Voter Turnout; Popular and Electoral College Votes; Simultaneity and Recursive Identification; High Dimensional Forecasting Models; Lasso; OCMT (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C55 D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-10-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ore and nep-ure
Note: mhp1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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