Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern

Lacalle-Calderon Maricruz (), Perez-Trujillo Manuel and Neira Isabel
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Lacalle-Calderon Maricruz: Department of Economics and Economic Development, School of Economics and Business, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
Perez-Trujillo Manuel: Department of Economics and Instituto de Economía Aplicada Regional (IDEAR), Universidad Católica del Norte
Neira Isabel: Econometrics Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela

No 70, Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional from Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper analyses empirically the relationship between economic development and fertility. Through a new sample selection and quantile regression, it investigates whether there is an inverse J-shaped pattern between these two variables, and, if so, whether it depends on development and fertility levels. Our results confirm that the inverse J-shaped pattern exists, but only when a certain level of economic development is attained. Results also suggest an innovative finding: the J-shape depends not only on the development but also on the fertility level. The higher the fertility rate, the higher the GDP per capita needed to reverse fertility decline, and the faster the negative and positive segments of the J-shape fall and grow.

Keywords: J-shaped pattern; Fertility rate; Economic development; Quantile regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 J11 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2015-08, Revised 2016-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem and nep-gro
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https://sites.google.com/a/ucn.cl/wpeconomia/archivos/WP2016-06.pdf First version, 2016 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cat:dtecon:dt201606

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