Evaluating the Determinants of Irish Inflation
Stephen Byrne and
Shayan Zakipour-Saber
Additional contact information
Shayan Zakipour-Saber: Central Bank of Ireland
No 01/EL/20, Economic Letters from Central Bank of Ireland
Abstract:
During the period from 1970 to the early 2000s, there was a consensus that Irish inflation was primarily determined by external factors. In this letter, we evaluate the relative importance of domestic factors, external factors, and inflation expectations and specify how these have changed over time. We find that since the crisis, external factors remain the most important determinants of inflation. However, domestic factors such as labour slack have been increasingly important in recent years. Evaluating published forecasts against a benchmark statistical model, the Central Bank performs best at shorter horizons, i.e. less than one year. This validates an approach that combines model-evidence with expert judgement.
Date: 2020-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mon
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)
Downloads: (external link)
https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publica ... -saber).pdf?sfvrsn=6 (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbi:ecolet:01/el/20
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Economic Letters from Central Bank of Ireland Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Fiona Farrelly ().