Population Change and Housing Demand in Ireland

Thomas Conefrey and David Staunton
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Thomas Conefrey: Central Bank of Ireland

No 14/EL/19, Economic Letters from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: Changes in population and household formation have important implications for the demand for housing, but their precise future paths are uncertain. Using the most up-to-date population projections from the CSO, this Economic Letter estimates scenarios for long-run housing demand in Ireland. We find that – assuming no change in household formation rates (headship) from current levels – an average of around 34,000 new dwellings would be required each year out to 2030 to keep pace with the projected growth in the population. Recent observed levels of residential completions are well below both current and future estimated demand, implying a need for further expansion in the supply of new dwellings.

Date: 2019-12
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