Mortgage modifications in Ireland: a recent history

Fergal McCann ()

No 16/EL/17, Economic Letters from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: Mortgage modification has played a central role in the policy response to the mortgage arrears crisis in Ireland. In this Letter I use Central Bank loan level data to provide a time line of the recent history of modification issuance in Ireland, highlighting the rapid switch from modifications of a short-term to those of a more long-term, sustainable nature since 2013. I then show in an empirical model that the probability of non-payment increases substantially for modified mortgages with a previous default history, as it does for those with higher loan-to-value ratios, those with higher interest rates, those outside Dublin and those issued short-term, temporary arrangements.

Date: 2017-12
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