A Vulnerability Analysis for Mortgaged Irish Households

Vasilis Tsiropoulos
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Vasilis Tsiropoulos: Central Bank of Ireland

No 2/FS/18, Financial Stability Notes from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: This note assesses the vulnerability of mortgaged Irish households to financial shocks. It uses the Central Bank of Ireland’s Loan Loss Forecasting internal model and employs loan level data provided by the five main mortgage lenders. The model calculates a vulnerability index for currently performing mortgages under a certain adverse scenario which involves movements in the unemployment rate, house prices and interest rates. The model predicts that the most vulnerable households are those with high current loan-to-value ratios, multiple loans, loans that originated between 2004 and 2009 and those in South-East, Midland and Border region.

Date: 2018-05
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